4 assumptions about future prices for gold and silver.
Articles are the personal views of Dan Popescu
Mr. Popescu is an independent investment analysis; market research gold, silver and their role in the future for the international monetary system. He has closely followed the gold market, silver and foreign exchange since 1970. He holds a Bachelor of Physics (1993) at Concordia University in Montreal, Canada and has completed the Investment Management Certificate Canada (1999) of CSI. He was a member and chairman in 2004 of the CSTA and is also president of the Montreal CFA Society in 2005. He was a member of the CFA Institute, MTA, Nyssa, UKSIP, CSTA and Gold Standard Institute International.
Before I go into the 5 reasons to buy gold in this year, I will present on 4 hypotheses about future prices for gold and silver.
The hypothesis for 2015
The first hypothesis is the current bear market is not yet over and gold will undergo one or two foot decreased to return the $ 300 price. On a technical basis, this hypothesis can be protected if you believe that the threshold of $ 1,900 is the end of the "gold bubble" started in 2000. I do not believe so. Based on many other technical elements, of course, also include the fundamentals, I think this hypothesis occur with a very low probability.
The second theory
is that we will relive the $ 1000 - 700. This scenario is likely to
happen more, but, in my opinion, it needs to happen now and with
indicators presage market without market decline will not likely fall
back below $ 700. This scenario is the market's overall
household retracement down starting in 2009. Da selloff pushed gold to $
1,000 threshold as much as possible, there will be an approximately 50%
retracement from the peak level, but I think it will happen now.
Third hypothesis
would be a continuation of the "sideways - neutral" with price changes
ranged from $ 1,100 to $ 1,400 before the market moves in either
direction in 2016. This is a scenario well if the central bank to act to
avoid the collapse of international monetary system. Recent events make me believe some is "black swan" or a combination of events will end this sideways trend sooner.
Wednesday hypothesis, and that's what I gave all, 2015 was the beginning of "mania" is described by the bubble model below. I
still believe that the next bubble of gold and silver market will begin
in the year 2015 - 2017 and is expected to end no later than 2022. This
time period corresponds approximately to a large margin of "error". I
do not expect a change market movements impressed but a jump of at
least $ 500 / day, as we saw in the '70s when gold moved from $ 100 up
to $ 850 is possible. We have experienced, in my opinion, in a trap similar to the decrease shown in the graph below. The
main cause of this manic episode is the collapse of international
monetary system current dollar terms, as well as to end the current
currency war with the reset action.
2015 began with many conflicting movements, but
eventually they all pushed gold higher, and even a greater crisis may
push gold beyond $ 2,000.
I believe we are at the very last moment in the Federal Reserve System to make the market price of US stocks and I do not believe that the dollar is on its way to a bull market like the 80s I also believe that US Treasuries are in a bubble and the war history will end its currency. The dollar system - the ongoing oil and all those dollars circulating outside the US will return to where it came from, creating a shifting trend towards the greenback, eventually hyperinflation will appear at the top economies in the world. Tensions between the US and the "enemy" of his, Russia and China are increasingly escalating. US relations with the European Union also is the trend worse.
Mr. Popescu is an independent investment analysis; market research gold, silver and their role in the future for the international monetary system. He has closely followed the gold market, silver and foreign exchange since 1970. He holds a Bachelor of Physics (1993) at Concordia University in Montreal, Canada and has completed the Investment Management Certificate Canada (1999) of CSI. He was a member and chairman in 2004 of the CSTA and is also president of the Montreal CFA Society in 2005. He was a member of the CFA Institute, MTA, Nyssa, UKSIP, CSTA and Gold Standard Institute International.
Before I go into the 5 reasons to buy gold in this year, I will present on 4 hypotheses about future prices for gold and silver.
The hypothesis for 2015
The first hypothesis is the current bear market is not yet over and gold will undergo one or two foot decreased to return the $ 300 price. On a technical basis, this hypothesis can be protected if you believe that the threshold of $ 1,900 is the end of the "gold bubble" started in 2000. I do not believe so. Based on many other technical elements, of course, also include the fundamentals, I think this hypothesis occur with a very low probability.
Gold fell to $ 300?
Gold fell to $ 700
Gold and silver - Potential bubbles appear in future
I believe we are at the very last moment in the Federal Reserve System to make the market price of US stocks and I do not believe that the dollar is on its way to a bull market like the 80s I also believe that US Treasuries are in a bubble and the war history will end its currency. The dollar system - the ongoing oil and all those dollars circulating outside the US will return to where it came from, creating a shifting trend towards the greenback, eventually hyperinflation will appear at the top economies in the world. Tensions between the US and the "enemy" of his, Russia and China are increasingly escalating. US relations with the European Union also is the trend worse.
Terminate the Fed created the market for US stock prices up
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